20 days from the end of oil? If ships don’t start sailing through the Strait, expect oil to go to $150, Vikas Dwivedi and the team at Macquarie warned yesterday. “Without an agreement and a fast cessation of all kinetic activity, the crude market will begin to break in days, and not in weeks or months,” they told clients. There were already reports of oil and gas wells in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar being “shut-in” (ie closed). “In our view, the final cuts would occur in Saudi Arabia roughly 20 days from now.”
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Hagar Chemali, who previously served as Director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council and currently heads Greenwich Media Strategies as its CEO and Founder, expressed skepticism regarding Iran's ability to maintain dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.